sábado, 22 de junio de 2019

Why there will be no jobs in 50 years time?

When we look how the economy works around us, we soon realise we are part of a dynamic system with inputs and outputs; from the people that bring the food delivery to our house, to the chef producing it, to the entrepreneur that open that restaurant and to the company that make the tissues that came with the food. Everything around us has formed part of a production process involving thousands of people at some point.

For that to happen, simply with the forces of supply and demand, people position themselves when there is an arbitrage opportunity to make money in the short medium and long term. Most of us educate with the purpose that on some future time, we will capitalize that knowledge. From a microeconomic point of view makes sense what we do, as we want to have a good life and possibly support other people economically as well (partners, family..etc). [There is obviously a generalization here, as there are some examples when we act irrationally, as we are not perfect machines and we make as humans plenty of mistakes.]

From a macroeconomic perspective, it is another story. We should be asking what is the purpose of working long hours, when at this stage we can easily live well if we were just working maybe even one day per week, so we have time to do what we really thrive. It is clear that most of us enjoy some of what we are doing at work, but all of us we do lots of things we do not like. Why don't we reduce dramatically the hours? The rationale behind an advanced economy is that we increase GDP to increase welfare, but what happens if that increase of GDP is not as worth it as the decrease in welfare by working long hours? And that we are just pushed to do it, as everyone does it?
Why an increase of GDP which is merely reflective of a society of consume is so well regarded, and not the whole picture?
There are probably few answers to that, from a historic stand point of view the regions that more produced and advanced, were more able to conquer other cities, so there is an inherent force that makes us carry on with what we have been doing.

Is there a break-even point in the future that will change the way we are behaving?

Maybe there is, maybe at some point in the future we will stop being producing machines, and we will stop working altogether. Maybe if Artificial Intelligence in 50 years time can do better jobs than us, we will not need to work. But what will be a life without work? Are we just going to enjoy freedom, sounds ideal or does it not?